Favourite Lost the First Set? Tennis Comeback Odds by Price
Once a favourite drops the opening set, their pre-match price still shapes the recovery odds. Here is how often they come back, band by band, in best-of-three tennis.
When the pre-match tennis favourite loses the first set of a best-of-3 match, how often do they still win, and how does that depend on their price?
- A60.7%under-1.15 favourites who won after losing set 1
- B21.1%1.90-2.00 favourites who won after losing set 1
- C50.5%of set-down favourites lost in straight sets
- D29,112matches where the favourite lost set 1
Few moments in tennis split a betting audience like a favourite losing the first set. Some see a bargain on the live price, others see the start of a collapse. I wanted to know which reading the record supports, so this study tracks what happened next in tour-level best-of-three singles. I use it alongside my tennis betting predictions page whenever a favourite stumbles early.
The headline is plain. Across 82,613 priced best-of-3 matches, the pre-match favourite lost the first set in 35.2% of them (29,112 matches) and went on to win only 31.3% of those. The price matters enormously, though. Favourites under 1.15 still won 60.7%, while near-even favourites at 1.90-2.00 recovered just 21.1% of the time.
Branch ALosing set one cuts every favourite's chance sharply
This chart sets each band's average margin-free pre-match chance against the win rate once the opening set was gone. The under-1.15 group was priced at an average 89.0% before a ball was struck, and dropping the first set moved them by −28.3 points to 60.7%. Even the heaviest favourites are no longer heavy favourites once that set is lost.
Further down the price ladder the fall is just as steep in relative terms. Favourites at 1.15-1.29 went from 79.5% priced to 43.8%, a figure measured on 3,823 matches with a 95% range of ±1.6 points.
Priced chance = average margin-free pre-match probability of the same matches; bars show 95% range.
View the data: pre-match chance vs chance after losing set 1
| Pre-match priced chance | Won after losing set 1 | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.15 (1,161 matches) | 89.0% | 60.7% | ±2.8 |
| 1.15-1.29 (3,823 matches) | 79.5% | 43.8% | ±1.6 |
| 1.30-1.49 (7,343 matches) | 69.8% | 34.5% | ±1.1 |
| 1.50-1.69 (8,611 matches) | 61.2% | 27.7% | ±0.9 |
| 1.70-1.89 (6,968 matches) | 54.5% | 22.4% | ±1 |
| 1.90-2.00 (1,206 matches) | 50.8% | 21.1% | ±2.3 |
One thing to be clear about: the pre-match line cannot be bet once you know the first set has gone to the underdog. The left-hand dots describe a price that no longer exists; only the right-hand dots relate to anything you can act on in play.
Branch BStraight-sets defeat is the most common ending
Here each match is split into how it actually finished. The most common branch overall is a straight-sets defeat: 50.5% of set-down favourites lost 0-2. That surprised me less than it might. A player who has lost the first set is often struggling with the conditions or the opponent's game, and that rarely resets itself at the changeover.
The short end of the market behaves differently. Under 1.15, the favourite lost 0-2 in only 26.0% of these matches and 1-2 in 13.3%. At 1.90-2.00, those figures climb to 57.0% and 22.0%.
Matches where the pre-match favourite lost the first set; n in brackets.
View the data: favourite lost set 1: how the match ends
| Favourite wins 2-1 | Favourite loses 1-2 | Favourite loses 0-2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.15 (1,161) | 60.7% | 13.3% | 26.0% |
| 1.15-1.29 (3,823) | 43.8% | 16.3% | 39.9% |
| 1.30-1.49 (7,343) | 34.5% | 18.8% | 46.6% |
| 1.50-1.69 (8,611) | 27.7% | 18.1% | 54.2% |
| 1.70-1.89 (6,968) | 22.4% | 18.8% | 58.7% |
| 1.90-2.00 (1,206) | 21.1% | 22.0% | 57.0% |
Overall, favourites who lost the first set won the second 49.5% of the time, which is close to a coin flip. Priced under 1.15, they took it 74.0% of the time, and that second set is where the real class gap shows.
Branch CFair odds for both players once a set down
This table turns the frequencies into fair odds with no margin added. A set-down favourite from the under-1.15 band has a fair price of 1.65, while the underdog's fair price is 2.55. At 1.30-1.49 the underdog's fair price shortens to 1.53, and against a 1.90-2.00 favourite it falls to 1.27.
The second column is worth a look too. Favourites under 1.15 lost the first set in only 14.4% of matches, while near-even favourites lost it in 49.1%, effectively a toss-up for who leads.
| Pre-match price | Lost set 1 | Matches | Fav wins | Fair odds fav | Fair odds dog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.15 | 14.4% | 1,161 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 2.55 |
| 1.15-1.29 | 25.7% | 3,823 | 43.8% | 2.29 | 1.78 |
| 1.30-1.49 | 33.4% | 7,343 | 34.5% | 2.89 | 1.53 |
| 1.50-1.69 | 41.9% | 8,611 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 1.38 |
| 1.70-1.89 | 47.2% | 6,968 | 22.4% | 4.46 | 1.29 |
| 1.90-2.00 | 49.1% | 1,206 | 21.1% | 4.75 | 1.27 |
"Lost set 1" = share of all matches in the band where the favourite dropped the opening set.
These fair odds are the benchmark for live prices. The study uses closing pre-match odds and excludes retirements, so every branch comes from matches played to a finish, and past frequencies are not a promise about the next match.
Branch DBoth tours recover at strikingly similar rates
I expected a clearer gap between the tours, and there barely is one. ATP favourites under 1.15 came back from a set down in 61.2% of matches, WTA favourites at the same price in 60.2%. At 1.50-1.69 the rates were 27.6% and 27.7%, close enough to treat as the same.
The bottom row is the one I lean on most. Once level at 1-1, the under-1.15 favourite won the decider 82.1% of the time, while the 1.90-2.00 favourite won it 48.9% of the time. Pulling level restores the short-priced player's edge, but it does very little for a near-even favourite.
Third row: favourite's win % in the deciding set after levelling at 1-1. Every cell 300+ matches.
View the data: comeback rate by tour
| Under 1.15 | 1.15-1.29 | 1.30-1.49 | 1.50-1.69 | 1.70-1.89 | 1.90-2.00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP | 61.2% | 45.1% | 35.6% | 27.6% | 22.9% | 22.2% |
| WTA | 60.2% | 42.4% | 33.4% | 27.7% | 22.0% | 19.9% |
| Decider win after levelling 1-1 | 82.1% | 72.9% | 64.7% | 60.4% | 54.3% | 48.9% |
If this happens…
An under-1.15 favourite a set down still won 60.7% of the time, while a 1.90-2.00 favourite won only 21.1%. Treat them as different situations, not one scenario.
Check the live price against the fair figure for that band, such as 1.65 for an under-1.15 favourite or 4.75 at 1.90-2.00. The pre-match line no longer exists at this point.
If a short favourite levels, the decider record jumps to 82.1% under 1.15. Near-even favourites who level won the decider only 48.9% of the time.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the tennis favourite win after losing the first set?
Across 29,112 best-of-3 matches where the pre-match favourite dropped the opening set, they went on to win 31.3% of them. The rate depends heavily on their price.
Do heavy favourites usually come back from a set down?
Favourites priced under 1.15 won 60.7% of matches after losing set 1, with fair odds of 1.65. They also won the second set 74.0% of the time.
Is there a difference between ATP and WTA comebacks?
Very little. Under 1.15, ATP favourites recovered in 61.2% of matches and WTA favourites in 60.2%, and at 1.50-1.69 the rates were 27.6% and 27.7%.
I'm Élise Marchand, based in Monaco, and I write the tennis betting predictions at cricketscoretips.com — where surface and scheduling outweigh the rankings.
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